Hubbert s peak theory is the idea that because oil production follows a bellshaped curve, global crude oil production will eventually peak and then go into terminal decline. How does economic theory explain the hubbert peak oil model. Consider repaying me for your free 20minute reading experience. This theory, now known as hubberts peak theory, applies to both individual oil fields and to global. Hubberts peak the theory of peak oil is based on the work of hubbert m. Peak oil is the theory that at some point in time, global oil production will peak and begin to drop. Techniques of prediction with application to the petroleum industry. The theory was created in 1950 by the american geologist m.
He made several important contributions to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the hubbert curve and hubbert peak theory a basic component of peak oil, with important. The history of the scientific study of peak oil dates to the 1950s, when hubbert, a shell geophysicist, reported on studies he had undertaken regarding the production rates of oil and gas fields. Hubbert is famous for peak oil, but in this paper he suggests a solution to the peak oil problem. Hubbert s theory has it pretty well pegged and you are just beating around the edges. The curve is the main component of hubbert peak theory, which has led to the rise of peak oil concerns. He made several important contributions to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the hubbert curve and hubbert peak theory a basic component of peak oil, with important political ramifications. King hubbert, perhaps the foremost geophysicist of the 20th century, who first theorized about the eventual decline of oil production in the 1930s. The theory of peak oil, the idea that global crude production may be at or near its limit, is based on the work of m. After this moment, according to the hubbert peak theory, the rate of oil production on the world would enter a terminal decline. This is used by oil companies to estimate future oil.
The first person to advance the peak oil theory publicly was marion king hubbert, an american geoscientist who worked as a researcher for the shell oil company from 1943 to 1964 and taught geophysics at stanford university and other institutions. Hubberts peak or hubberts curve is a model that approximates the production rate of a resource over a period of time. King hubbert s 1956 statistical modeling, united states oil production would peak between 1965 and 1971. P f r f 2 where we have changed the subscript ad from the classical abiotic depletion to hd for the one based on the hubbert peak theory. In the us, oil extraction followed the discovery curve after a time lag of 32 to 35 years. Hubbert peak theory states that the rate of oil production follows a bell shaped curve. When hubberts peak was validated in the mid1970s, he became a prophet. King hubbert that states the production rate of a given oil field will follow a bell curve. But based on this estimate, hubbert projected that the global peak in crude oil production would occur around the year 2000 at 34 million bpd.
Similar to the predictions of the hubbert curve, the hubbert peak theory implies that maximum production from an oil reserve will occur towards the middle of the reserve life. King, who successfully predicted peak oil production in the lower 48 states of the. Peak oil is not a theory but a fact because oil is a limited resource. Hubberts peak theory is the idea that, because oil production is a nonrenewable resource, global crude oil production will eventually peak and. The hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bellshaped curve. The theory of peak oil and subsequently, of natural resource scarcity in general has consequently become associated with hubbert, and. Hubbert s theory was verified with good approximation for the case of oil production in the united states that peaked in 1971, and is now being applied to the worldwide oil production.
In the early days of oil in 1956, a shell geophysicist named marion hubbert developed a math model of oil production. Hubberts math has four di erent expressions which we examine before showing they are mathematically equivalent. Read my essays about the making of peak oil, describing the 1,500 hours i spent drawing this peak oil comic. Information concerning the hubbert peak theory physics forums. Resource depletion potentials from bottomup models.
King hubbert, a geologist working for shell in the 1950s. There has been a growing interest in the topic of peak oil theory for the past few decades. Pdf a critique of hubberts model for peak oil researchgate. It can only be a theory if there is the possibility that oil is an infinite resource. King hubbert, a geologist working for the shell oil company. The future of oil and hubberts peak oil theory scitech connect. Peak oil as a proper noun, or hubberts peak applied more generally, refers to a singular event in history. King hubbert did more to raise awareness of the finite nature of global oil reserves than any other person, living or dead. This theory, now known as hubberts peak theory, applies to both individual oil fields and to global oil reserves as a whole.
King hubbert published a model for the growth and decline over time of the production rates of oil extracted from the land mass of the continental united states. Development of hubberts peak oil theory and analysis of its. Basing his calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, hubbert used his model in 1956 to create a curve which predicted that oil production in the contiguous united states would peak. Comments on the article the shocks of a world of cheap oil by jaffe and manning in the januaryfebruary issue. Hubbert s peak or hubbert s curve is a model that approximates the production rate of a resource over a period of time. The hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite, therefore the rate of discovery which initially increases quickly must reach a maximum and decline. The great debate over the end of oil abstract this paper analyzes the major debates over future petroleum supply in the united states, in particular the longrunning feud between the worldfamous geologist, m. Hubberts peak, he triumphantly says, i told you so.
Note the peak was reached in approximately 1970, though the decline has taken longer than predicted by the hubbert curve. Mar 17, 2006 in the last couple of days i have been searching for information concerning the hubbert peak theory. Hubberts presumption that the two rates are the same led him to presume in 1956 that worldwide oil production would be peaking about about 2008. That puts even more upward pressure on the price of oil. According to hubbert, the production curve is bell shaped and approximately symmetric. Sep 08, 2016 what hubbert got really wrong about oil. Contrary to the theory, oil production shows no sign of a peak. How does economic theory explain the hubbert peak oil. Hubbert peak oil theory successfully forecasted the peak year of crude oil production in the united states. Hubberts peak historical studies in the natural sciences. Development of hubberts peak oil theory and analysis of. Scribd is the worlds largest social reading and publishing site.
Specifically, hubberts peak refers to the point at which this production rate is at its highest with demand for the resource rising, and after this it predicts a drop in correlation to the increased demand. Hubbert peak theory wikimili, the best wikipedia reader. Frederic reynes a, b, samuel okullo a, marjan hofkes a a institute for environmental studies instituut voor milieuvraagstukken ivm, faculty of earth and life. His life has now been chronicled by science writer mason inman in a new biography entitled the oracle of oil.
The use of partial derivative therefore makes it possible to define the cf of the resource depletion on the basis of the hubbert theory. The impending world oil shortage beyond oil is my more readable and accessable to the layman. He made several important contributions to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the hubbert curve and hubbert peak theory peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline. There are several reasons why it is important to get insight into the economic foundations of peak. Dec 15, 2018 hubberts peak, better known as peak oil, is often used more generally, to refer to the moment in time when the entire planets oil production peak occurs. This means that the most production will tend to be in the middle of the oil reserves life cycle. The hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual. Prediction that us oil production would peak in 1970 happened very much as he predicted although the year was incorrect. Whether hubbert was accurate about the global crudeoil production peak is a more controversial topic. Specifically, hubbert s peak refers to the point at which this production rate is at its highest with demand for the resource rising, and after this it predicts a drop in correlation to the increased demand. Marion king hubbert october 5, 1903 october 11, 1989 was a geoscientist who worked at the shell oil company research lab in houston, texas.
Notice that each nation has a peak that was reached sometime between 1970 and 2004. The acceptance of hubberts theory ensured the centrality of oil in almost all. Hubbert in the 1950s as a way to describe the production pattern of crude oil. The acceptance of hubbert s theory ensured the centrality of oil in almost all discourses about the future, and it even created a cultural movement of prophecy believers fixated on preparing for the oil end times.
When hubbert s peak was validated in the mid1970s, he became a prophet. World heritage encyclopedia, the aggregation of the largest online encyclopedias. In reality, crude oil production in 2000 was more than twice as high at about 75 million bpd. Hubbert s presumption that the two rates are the same led him to presume in 1956 that worldwide oil production would be peaking about about 2008. The theories of hubbert have garnered a lot of credibility after his successful prediction of the rise and fall of oil production in the united states. Pdf how does economic theory explain the hubbert peak oil. Bartlett aa 2000 an analysis of us and world oil production. During his research hubbert was working for the shell oil company. After peak oil, according to the hubbert peak theory, the rate of oil production on earth would enter a terminal decline. His prediction was based on mathematical analysis of the time histories of cumulative discoveries, production, and remaining reserves for a finite resource. He was a largerthanlife figure, who fought tirelessly to insert the limits of nature into the national dialog regarding the strategic use of resources. King hubbert and the future of peak oil resilience. The idea of peak oil theory grew out of a 1956 paper published by marion king hubbert. Well part of the problem with the split between hubbert theory and the peak oil theory articles is it is clear that many people use the former name to discuss the whole theory as it has developed, so focusing it in on only what hubbert had to say is misleading.
The hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to. The aim of this paper is to provide an economic foundation for bell shaped oil extraction trajectories, consistent with hubbert s peak oil model. Usa production which has passed its peak we can find the year that q reached that. Hubbert s peak the theory of peak oil is based on the work of hubbert m. An important component of hubbert s theory is that it can be applied at the local, regional, national, or global levels.
Hubbert s math has four di erent expressions which we examine before showing they are mathematically equivalent. Pdf how does economic theory explain the hubbert peak. King, who successfully predicted peak oil production in the lower 48 states of the united states. Although this model can be applied to many resources, it was developed as a model for oil production. Marion king hubbert october 5, 1903 october 11, 1989 was an american geologist and geophysicist. Contents the hubbert curve hubbert s peak criticism the hubbert curve the hubbert peak theory states that the rate of fossil fuel production such as oil tend to follow a bellshaped curve. Hubbert peak theory project gutenberg selfpublishing. Publication 204, shell development company, exploration and production research division, houston, texas, 1959. When global production reaches the highest point of the bell curve, it will have reached the point of peak oil. The theory of peak oil is based on the work of hubbert m. Peak oil theory memorial university of newfoundland. Hubbert came out with a theory that applies to the entire world and as small as individual oil producing region.
Jul 17, 2016 almost synonymous with the term peak oil is m. His prediction was based on mathematical analysis of the time histories. The theory of peak oil and subsequently, of natural resource scarcity in general has consequently become associated with hubbert, and hubbert curves and models. Most of the information about peak oil seems to be alarmist andor conspitacy theorist makepreparationsnoworyouregonnadie stuff. King hubbert made a bold prediction in 1956 that oil production in the u. What hubbert got wrong about peak oil by robert rapier sep 18. King hubbert suggested his discovery of peak oil wouldnt lead to collapse, but instead would usher in the use of nuclear power.
To understand all this, you have to understand peak oil few really do. Read my reference list, for sources backing up the comics statements. King hubbert and peak oil from a distance of 40 years. Peak oil or theory postulates the point at which the worlds oil supplies go into irreversible decline. He worked at the shell research lab in houston, texas.
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